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Prediction for CME (2022-09-02T19:32:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-09-02T19:32Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21516/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the S/SE in STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption stretching across the SE quadrant visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193 and 304 around 2022-09-02T18:30Z. An opening of field lines is visible off the SE limb in SDO AIA 171 around this time, and post-eruptive loops begin to form shortly after the filament lift-off as seen in SDO AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-09-05T18:01Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20903
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Sep 2022, 1231UT

A CME of about 70 degrees angular width and speed around 670 km/s was detected at 19:24 UT on 2 September. The CME originated from a filament eruption in the southeastern quadrant of the Sun, close to AR 3093. It is mostly directed to the south, but a glancing blow at the Earth is possible on 5 September.

Lead Time: 57.97 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2022-09-03T08:03Z

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